[EXOTIC1]

Most cars depreciate ~50% in 3 years.

Price is determined by last price paid, and price represents the equilibrium between supply & demand.

I suspect, and do not know, the dealers bought many of the new MC20's putting downward pressure on price.

The MC20 is a halo car and should be totally made bespoke. This will support price over time because MC20's will be hard to find.

Not to state the obvious but the MC20 is going electric and Maserati is going fully electric, and bravo for that. Therefore the MC20 ICE vehicle will be a collector's car with a brilliant patented two combustion cylinder producing greater efficiency and power.

Lastly, as a collector the MC20 represents timeless beauty in the super car market and beauty always holds its value.

In sum, once the dealer stock is bought up that will be the bottom because the MC20 is going fully bespoke, once everyone in the know is trying to get a car.

When do they start making electric MC? I wonder how GT electric sales are doing.

 

[pchop]

Interesting. Is this for a 2022 MC20 - so you're tracking the use car price over time, or is this for a brand new MC20, so in 2022 it was a 2022 model and in 2023 it was a 2023 model?

Are those the lowest prices, or the average sell price (blue line)? What percentage of the cars sell at the lowest sale price, if that is what you are reporting (I'm thinking it's like winning the lottery to get a price so discounted ... if it's only 1 in 50). If used, were there any issues with these cars (accident, abuse) or with the buyer (financial issues). Basically, is the data representative of the norms anyone of us would typically face if we walked into a dealership right now to buy an MC20?

Have you factored in the supply tap for the coupes just turned off (last coupe I heard rolled out the factor a few weeks ago) ...

Have you adding any impact from a potential interest rate cut this summer, and almost certainly easing happening by the end of the year?
If this is new, have you factored in the COST of the vehicle and the resistance that would come at having to sell at a loss, particularly for a car that isn't "bread and butter" for the dealers?

Please note, I'm not knocking the study ... but I want to understand the basis for it ... my gut says that a $135k for a new MC20 is dreaming, and not one ounce of reality ... and if this is based on used ... okay, but we need to understand if this is the lowest cost out there, and for what ... something with an accident, or a few years of abuse ... or representative of an average (I'd take an average for the midpoint, and lower band should be the ones heavily discounted due to accidents/problems).

Mark, this is a very "simple" model using AAA algorithm. These are all 2022 pre-owned and non accident cars...so diminished value doesn't play a factor. In addition, I also removed earlier sales that were sold above MSRP. B/c if we factor those in, the results will be much skewed to a lower forecast. The data are the ones I can get access to (mostly are auction results) and a few results from dealers. They encompass sold and highest bids without sale.

To answers your questions about whether one can walk into dealer and get the current price...I will re-quote from my previous post: "Interestingly enough a 4K miles Rosso Vicente MC20 at Kerbeck Maserati was just sold for $176K." Here's VIN: ZAM24BXAXN0379793 - it was sold to a gentleman from Long Island, NY.

If coupe production has ended, I suspect it's due to the lack of demand. I was just offered a high MSRP new 2023 for $80K off by a dealer...so I don't think the end of production will support the price in the near future.

Mark, just to be clear on one thing: I'm would like to see a strong secondary market for the MC20. I don't want to own a car that every Tom, Dick & Harry can jump into - it cheapens the brand. MC20 is a great car and based on the market it's under appreciated. I hope the MC20 will be the future Ford GT (05/06 generation) or the Carrera GT. I missed out getting both when they were quite reasonable. What MC20 shares with Carrera GT & Ford GT is that it's currently unloved...and they are produced in limited quantities. But for now, whether we like it or not, price will continue to slide.

 

[markb]

Mark, this is a very "simple" model using AAA algorithm. These are all 2022 pre-owned and non accident cars...so diminished value doesn't play a factor. In addition, I also removed earlier sales that were sold above MSRP. B/c if we factor those in, the results will be much skewed to a lower forecast. The data are the ones I can get access to (mostly are auction results) and a few results from dealers. They encompass sold and highest bids without sale.

To answers your questions about whether one can walk into dealer and get the current price...I will re-quote from my previous post: "Interestingly enough a 4K miles Rosso Vicente MC20 at Kerbeck Maserati was just sold for $176K." Here's VIN: ZAM24BXAXN0379793 - it was sold to a gentleman from Long Island, NY.

If coupe production has ended, I suspect it's due to the lack of demand. I was just offered a high MSRP new 2023 for $80K off by a dealer...so I don't think the end of production will support the price in the near future.

Mark, just to be clear on one thing: I'm would like to see a strong secondary market for the MC20. I don't want to own a car that every Tom, Dick & Harry can jump into - it cheapens the brand. MC20 is a great car and based on the market it's under appreciated. I hope the MC20 will be the future Ford GT (05/06 generation) or the Carrera GT. I missed out getting both when they were quite reasonable. What MC20 shares with Carrera GT & Ford GT is that it's currently unloved...and they are produced in limited quantities. But for now, whether we like it or not, price will continue to slide.

Understood, thanks for clarifying. I think it's a reasonable assessment based on the depreciation to be expected on a 2022 MC20 ... although, I think there are a few things missing, that are probably very, very difficult to include due to complexities or lack of info, for instance:

- what will a rate cut do to the prices ... all luxury super cars brands are suffering right now ... the prices shot through the roof during COVID, and there has been a substantial pull back on used car prices over the past 12 - 18 months for sure. So, this is an economic climate issue, more than an MC20/Maserati issue. I suspect with rate cuts coming in the summer, and many signals saying there will be multiple small consecutive cuts ... the economy will pick up again, and spur spending ... brings the demand back.

- what will the coupe end of production really do ... and I don't think this is a "now" issue, which is why we didn't see the price trend change too much in the past few months ... (a) not too many people know that the coupe production ended, and (b) right now, the stock is available to purchase ... the supply is there, but it won't be in 6 to 9 months from now ... what happens when you can only purchase a Cielo for $70k more ... and the hard core collectors, who may favor coupes want this car. I know a few collectors who want this car in their garage ... and I feel slowly people are learning about the MC20 ... I showed my new purchase by photos to a bunch of friends, and they were like isn't that the new MC car from Maserati ... people who know not much about cars ... so the brand recognition is gaining traction.

- what else are you competing with in that price range ... so, let's assume it drops to $135k ... is it not hands down the best option out there in that price range, relative to anything else that is available at that price? For sure. Well what about $150k ... isn't it still the best option? What about $165k? Likely. $175k ... probably. I think at $135k you're just tapping into WAY too much demand, and that means it will find support well before that. I expect the car to depreciate ... but I cannot see the MC20 going at the same price as a Merc SL63 AMG or a Porche 911 Cab, or an Audi RS e-tron... It will compete with the choices of a McClaren Artura, a Ferrari 458 or 488 (maybe a few years older), a GT3 RS ... you have to consider the person buying, and the kind of vehicle they are interested in buying, and then what that range of vehicles of similar spec and stigma would cost at the same age of vehicle (or similarish age).

 

[Peter del Rio]

When do they start making electric MC? I wonder how GT electric sales are doing.

Maserati claims 2025 to begin production of the MC20 Folgore.

Not sure how much demand there is for a heavy GT EV.

However, that is a different story for a super car EV where it is all about light weight and weight to power ratio. The MC20 Folgore has the opportunity to be best in breed for super cars.

 

[MC20]

This is a great discussion, and I extend thanks to PCHOP and Mark for the analysis and debate. I’m personally interested, as I have a 2022 MC20. That said, the graph appears to be more of a six-month trend line…perhaps I’m doing a little wishful thinking here, but rather than a linear slope, things (prices) may taper off from the downward spiral sooner than anticipated (again, perhaps my wishful thinking)!

 

[timhood]

So I did agree but - there is a company that I can put you in touch with that makes a keyboard bag that sits on the shelf in the back seat - it’s £50 and makes all the difference!

I'm thinking "keyboard" is one of those terms that doesn't translate across the pond. Certainly not a bag for a computer keyboard? I'm curious to see the product.

 

[timhood]

Mark, this is a very "simple" model using AAA algorithm...They encompass sold and highest bids without sale.

I think you should do another model without including unsold auctions. An unsold car at auction reflects no "meeting of the minds." Thus, the seller wants more money and is willing to forego the sale rather than sell at a lower price. Also, the problem with making a prediction as such is that the past prices are feeding into the loop: the prediction can only be to trend lower until actual sales begin to show otherwise. Who knows what the future holds for MC20 prices? Personally, I think the end of production typically suggests a "bottom" for cars that have long-term collectability.

 

[Dai Uy Ted]

I'm thinking "keyboard" is one of those terms that doesn't translate across the pond. Certainly not a bag for a computer keyboard? I'm curious to see the product.

Perhaps a musical instrument?

 

[timhood]

Perhaps a musical instrument?

I didn't think of that because I can't imagine getting much inside a synth/digital piano case. Not that there's much space to work with, anyway. Pack everything just one or two layers deep.

 

[psk]

Dont see these cars going under $150k. Too much value. I know multiple owners with over 5k miles, including me, and havent faced any issues outside of the few recall campaigns.

 

[petrolista]

This one with 4100 miles just sold for $167k

2022 Maserati MC20

Bid for the chance to own a 2022 Maserati MC20 at auction with Bring a Trailer, the home of the best vintage and classic cars online. Lot #145,311.

bringatrailer.com

 

[petrolista]

I take that back. It was a no-sale as it didn't hit reserve. Highest bid was $167k

 

[EXOTIC1]

This one with 4100 miles just sold for $167k

2022 Maserati MC20

Bid for the chance to own a 2022 Maserati MC20 at auction with Bring a Trailer, the home of the best vintage and classic cars online. Lot #145,311.

bringatrailer.com

Saw that and like others posted in the BAT it’s looking like prices will continue to drop without buyers no matter how limited they may be. I don’t get it as it’s a great looking and special car.

 

[EXOTIC1]

Such a sweet looking car. I’m confused why buyers aren’t moving on them.

 

[petrolista]

It's a gorgeous car. I think the engine choice could be what's driving down prices. I have no doubt it's a very capable engine (I had extensive track time in the Alfa Giulia Quadrifoglio on the track and was thoroughly impressed). But a high-output twin turbo 6 in a $90k sedan is one thing, but in a $200k+ exotic it's a harder sell, especially with a disappointing exhaust note.

 

[psk]

Carbon fiber monocoque. Superb handling. Modified exhaust with Aria Carbon 🤤

 

[EXOTIC1]

It's a gorgeous car. I think the engine choice could be what's driving down prices. I have no doubt it's a very capable engine (I had extensive track time in the Alfa Giulia Quadrifoglio on the track and was thoroughly impressed). But a high-output twin turbo 6 in a $90k sedan is one thing, but in a $200k+ exotic it's a harder sell, especially with a disappointing exhaust note.

Car & driver review seems a bit off overall with their take.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g42321011/testing-winners-losers-2022/

 

[timado404]

It's a gorgeous car. I think the engine choice could be what's driving down prices. I have no doubt it's a very capable engine (I had extensive track time in the Alfa Giulia Quadrifoglio on the track and was thoroughly impressed). But a high-output twin turbo 6 in a $90k sedan is one thing, but in a $200k+ exotic it's a harder sell, especially with a disappointing exhaust note.

I agree with you on this one. I know how capable the twin-turbo V-6 is, yada, yada, yada! Buyers in this particular arena want their cars to be fitted with a monstrosity of an engine with an accompanying exhaust note, to boot. At least a screaming V-8, if not a V-10, If you please.

 

[Robert C]

Agree with all of you. Car industry at a whole is hurting. Very high interest rates hurts the value of this car big time. Half the buyers out there do use some sort of finance, And with a much higher payment, they back off, Leaving aged cars on lots, so they have no choice to lower asking price to turn inventory. These dealers floor there cars and are paying interest them selfs, They have to turn them.

 

[MC20]

The shift from v12’s to 10’s to 8’s and now TT v6’s is the wave of the future. The engines are lighter and provide better gas mileage as well as compliance with MPG mandates. Maserati’s MC20 Netuno engine is a 3.0L TT V6, just like the Artura.